Hin hliðin á málinu: Kólnun er verri en hlýnun!

Er eitthvað sem er verra en hlýnun? Já, kólnun! Margt bendir til þess að þegar eru borinn saman áhrif kólnunar við áhrif hlýnunar þá er kólnun miklu verri.  Og á sama tíma er margt sem bendir til að hlýnun sé í raun JÁKVÆÐ!

Nú er 4. Alþjóðlega ráðstefnan um loftslagsbreytingar lokið í Chicago.  Þar komu saman yfir 70 sérfræðingar og voru með fyrirlestra.  Voru þeir að mínu mati hverri annarri merkilegri. 

Allir fyrirlestrarnir munu koma á netið innan skamms og eru sumir þeirrra komnir núna. Bæði upptökur og powerpoint og verður hægt að ná í þetta á heimasíðu Heartland hér.  Einn af þeim merkilegri var haldinn af Don Easterbrook og er hægt að ná í fyrirlesturinn hér. Hann sagði að til þess að skilja núverandi loftslagsbreytingar þarf að skoða hvernig loftslag breyttist í fortíðinni. Meðal annars spáir hann kólnun á næstu árum.

Tveir Svíar voru einnig með merkilega fyrirlestra, Nils Axel Mörner og Fred Goldberg, í sama "sessioni". Hægt að ná í þá hér og hér. Báðir skemmtilegir og athyglisverðir fyrirlestrar. Goldberg er meðal annars með sögulegar staðreyndir tengdar Íslandi.

Varðandi fréttina að aprílmánuður sé sá hlýjasti sem um getur, þá eru nokkrir alvarlegir gallar á yfirborðsmælingum á jörðinni ( ég reikna að í fréttinni er átt við meðalhitastig á yfirborði jarðar).

 

 

Heitasti aprílmánuður sögunnar

Athugasemdir

[Ágúst H Bjarnason, 19.5.2010 kl. 17:31]

Satt er það. Kólnun getur verið miklu miklu verri en hlýnun.

Sjá grein í dag 19. maí í Examiner.

 

http://www.examiner.com/x-32936-Seminole-County-Environmental-News-Examiner~y2010m5d19-Triple-Crown-of-global-cooling-could-pose-serious-threat-to-humanity

Triple Crown of global cooling could pose serious threat to humanity

May 19, 12:31 PMSeminole County Environmental News ExaminerKirk Myers

 

“Global warming” may become one of those quaint cocktail party conversations of the past if three key climate drivers – cooling North Pacific sea surface temperatures, extremely low solar activity and increased volcanic eruptions – converge to form a “perfect storm” of plummeting temperatures that send our planet into a long-term cool-down lasting 20 or 30 years or longer.

“There are some wild cards that are different from what we saw when we came out of the last warm PDO [Pacific Decadal Oscillation] and entered its cool phase [1947 to 1976]. Now we have a very weak solar cycle and the possibility of increased volcanic activity. Together, they would create what I call the ‘Triple Crown of Cooling,’” says Accuweather meteorologist Joe Bastardi.

If all three climate-change ingredients come together, it would be a recipe for dangerously cold temperatures that would shorten the agricultural growing season in northern latitudes, crippling grain production in the wheat belts of the United States and Canada and triggering widespread food shortages and famine.

Cool Pacific Decadal Oscillation

The Pacific Decadal Oscillation refers to cyclical variations in sea surface temperatures that occur in the North Pacific Ocean. (The PDO is often described as a long-lived El Niño-like pattern.) PDO events usually persist for 20 to 30 years, alternating between warm and cool phases. During these long periods there are sometimes short-interval phase switches that can last several years.

From 1977 to 1998, during the height of “global warming,” North America was in the midst of a warm PDO. Since then, we have experienced several short-duration PDO fluctuations between cool and warm.

But the PDO has once again resumed its negative cool phase, and, as such, represents the first climate driver in the Triple Crown of Cooling. With the switch to a cool PDO, we’ve seen a change in the El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO), which alternates between El Nino (warm phase) and La Nina (cool phase) every few years. The recent strong El Nino that began in July 2009 is now transitioning to a La Nina, a sign of cooler temperatures ahead.

“We’re definitely headed towards La Nina conditions before summer is over, and we’re looking at a moderate to strong La Nina by fall and winter, which, as these La Ninas tend to persist in the cold PDO for two years, should bring us cooler temperatures over the next few years,” predicts Joe D’Aleo, founder of the International Climate and Environmental Change Assessment Project (ICECAP) and the first director of meteorology at the Weather Channel.

He is not alone in his forecast. Bastardi also sees a La Nina just around the corner.

“I’ve been saying since February that we’ll transition to La Nina by the middle of the hurricane season. I think we’re already seeing the atmosphere going into a La Nina state in advance of water temperatures. This will have interesting implications down the road. La Nina will dramatically cool off everything later this year and into next year, and it is a signal for strong hurricane activity,” Bastardi predicts.

The difference in sea surface temperature between positive and negative PDO phases is not more than 1 to 2 degrees Celsius, but the affected area is huge. So the temperature changes can have a big impact on the climate in North America.

In fact, as Dr. Roy Spencer points out, the warm-phase PDO lasting from 1977 to 1988 might explain most of the warming we experienced in the late 20th century.

“This is because a change in weather circulation patterns can cause a small change in global-average cloudiness. And since clouds represent the single largest internal control on global temperatures (through their ability to reflect sunlight), a change in cloudiness associated with the PDO might explain most of the climate change we’ve seen in the last 100 years or more,” he writes.

Declining solar activity

Another real concern – and the second climate driver in the Triple Crown of Cooling – is the continued stretch of weak solar activity Earth is experiencing. We recently exited the longest solar minimum –12.7 years compared to the 11-year average – in 100 years. It was a historically inactive period in terms of sunspot numbers. During the minimum, which began in 2004, we have experienced 800 spotless days. A normal cycle averages 485 spotless days.

In 2008, we experienced 265 days without a sunspot, the fourth-highest number of spotless days since continuous daily observations began in 1849. In 2009, the trend continued, with 261 spotless days, ranking it among the top five blank-sun years. Only 1878, 1901 and 1913 (the record-holder with 311 days) recorded more spotless days.

In 2010, the sun continues to remain in a funk. There were 27 spotless days (according to Layman’s sunspot count) in April and, as of May 19, 12 days without a spot. Both months exhibited periods of inexplicably low solar activity during a time when the sun should be flexing its “solar muscle” and ramping up towards the next solar maximum.

Why are sunspot numbers important? Very simple: there is a strong correlation between sunspot activity and global temperature. During the Dalton Minimum (1790 - 1830) and Maunder Minimum (1645 -1715), two periods with very low sunspot activity, temperatures in the Northern Hemisphere plummeted.

During the Dalton Minimum, the abnormally cold weather destroyed crops in northern Europe, the northeastern United States and eastern Canada. Historian John D. Post called it “the last great subsistence crisis in the Western world.” The record cold intensified after the eruption of Mount Tambora in 1815, the largest volcanic eruption in more than 1,600 years (see details below).

During the 70-year Maunder Minimum, astronomers at the time counted only a few dozen sunspots per year, thousands fewer than usual. As sunspots vanished, temperatures fell. The River Thames in London froze, sea ice was reported along the coasts of southeast England, and ice floes blocked many harbors. Agricultural production nose-dived as growing seasons became shorter, leading to lower crop yields, food shortages and famine.

If the low levels of solar activity during the past three years continue through the current solar cycle (Solar Cycle 24), which is expected to peak in 2013, we could be facing a severe temperature decline within the next five to eight years as Earth’s climate begins to respond to the drop-off in solar activity.

“The sun is behaving very quietly – like it did in the late 1700s during the transition from Solar Cycle 4 to Solar Cycle 5 – which was the start of the Dalton Minimum,” D’Aleo says. If the official sunspot number reaches only 40 or 50 – a low number indicating very weak solar energy levels – during the next solar maximum, we could be facing much lower global temperatures down the road.”

Even NASA solar physicist David Hathaway has said this is “the quietest sun we've seen in almost a century.”

"Since the Space Age began in the 1950s, solar activity has been generally high," Hathaway told NASA Science News. "Five of the ten most intense solar cycles on record have occurred in the last 50 years. We're just not used to this kind of deep calm."

Volcanic eruptions

Although the eruption of Iceland’s Mount Eyjafjallajokull volcano continues to raise havoc with air travel, it remains a relatively minor event by volcanic standards. Much of its ash cloud has stayed out of the stratosphere, where it would reflect sunlight, bringing cooler temperatures to the northern hemisphere.

Unfortunately, there is a very real chance Eyjafjallajokull’s much larger neighbor, the Katla volcano, could blow its top, creating the third-climate driver in the Triple Crown of Cooling. If Katla does erupt, it would send global temperatures into a nosedive, with a big assist from the cool PDO and a slumbering sun.

The Katla caldera measures 42 square miles and has a magma chamber with a volume of around 2.4 cubic miles, enough to produce a Volcanic Explosivity Index (VEI) level-six eruption – an event ten times larger than Mount St. Helens.

Katla erupts about every 70 years or so, most recently in 1918, often in tandem with neighboring Eyjafjallajokull, which is not a good sign.

According to Bastardi, “The Katla volcano in Iceland is a game changer. If it erupts and sends plumes of ash and SO2 into the stratosphere, any cooling caused by the oceanic cycles would be strengthened and amplified.”

Iceland’s President Olafur Grimsson says the eruption of Eyjafjallajoekull volcano is only a "small rehearsal.”

“The time for Katla to erupt is coming close . . . I don't say if, but I say when Katla will erupt,” Grimsson predicts. And when Katla finally erupts it will “create for a long period, extraordinary damage to modern advanced society.”

Not a very encouraging outlook. Yet major eruptions throughout history bear witness to the deadly impact of volcanoes.

The Tambora eruption in 1815, the largest in 1,600 years, sent the earth’s climate into a deep freeze, triggering “the year without a summer.” Columnist Art Horn, writing in the Energy Tribune, describes the impact:

“During early June of 1815, a foot of snow fell on Quebec City. In July and August, lake and river ice were observed as far south as Pennsylvania. Frost killed crops across New England with resulting famine. During the brutal winter of 1816/17, the temperature fell to -32 in New York City.”

And Katla, with its large magma chamber, would register high on the Volcanic Explosivity Index, if it were to erupt. When it unleashed its fury in the 1700s, the volcano sent temperatures into a tailspin in North America.

As Gary Hufford, a scientist with the Alaska Region of the National Weather Service, observes:

"The Mississippi River froze just north of New Orleans and the East Coast, especially New England, had an extremely cold winter.

"Katla could cause some serious weather changes. It depends on the duration of the eruption, and how high the ash gets blasted into the stratosphere.”

Global cooling: a life-threatening event

With the PDO now in its cool phase, solar activity the weakest in more than 100 years, and the prospect of a major climate-cooling volcanic eruption, actions to limit CO2 emissions should be shelved and preparations made for an extended period of global cooling that would pose far more danger to humankind than any real or imagined warming predicted by today’s climate models.

Says D’Aleo: “Cold is far more threatening than the little extra warmth we experienced from 1977 to 1998 during the recent warm PDO. According to NASA, crop yields increased 30 percent, and there was a 10 percent increase in arable land during that period, which helped us feed many millions more of the earth’s population. A cooling down to Dalton Minimum temperatures or worse would lead to shortened growing seasons and large-scale crop failures. Food shortages would make worse the fact that more people die from cold than heat.”

 

[Sveinn Atli Gunnarsson, 19.5.2010 kl. 23:09]

Það er fátt ef eitthvað í fræðunum sem bendir til þess að hnattræn kólnun sé hafin eða að hún sé yfirvofandi, það er m.a. vegna aukina gróðurhúsaáhrifa sem hafa áhrif til meiri hlýnunar (sem að sumra mati er góð). Sjá t.d. mýturnar - Það er að kólna en ekki hlýna og Lítil ísöld eða kuldaskeið er á næsta leiti

Annars væri fróðlegt að vita hvaða heimildir eru á bak við þá staðhæfingu þína, Karl Jóhann, um að hitagögn varðandi hita Jarðar séu ekki marktæk. Ef heimildirnar er t.d. Watts og D'Aleo, þá væri ráð að lesa aðeins um vinnubrögð þeirra félaga.

Sveinn Atli Gunnarsson
Ritstjóri á loftslag.is

[Höskuldur Búi Jónsson, 21.5.2010 kl. 12:39]

Af því að þú minnist á Don Easterbrook. 

Hér er umfjöllun um það hvernig Easterbrook falsar línurit í sínum fyrirlestri: Cooling-gate! Easterbrook fakes his figures, hides the incline

...og hér er önnur umfjöllun, þar sem gert er grín að því að hann skuli óttast kólnun: Fools rush in…

[Emil Hannes Valgeirsson, 21.5.2010 kl. 16:50]

Úr Examiner greininni:

„And Katla, with its large magma chamber, would register high on the Volcanic Explosivity Index, if it were to erupt. When it unleashed its fury in the 1700s, the volcano sent temperatures into a tailspin in North America.“

Hvaða er verið að tala um? Er nokkuð verið að rugla smaan Skaftáreldum og Kötlugosi?

[Höskuldur Búi Jónsson, 27.5.2010 kl. 10:25]

Enn meir um Easterbrook og falsanir hans: Cooling-gate: the 100 years of warming Easterbrook wants you to ignore

[Ágúst H Bjarnason, 28.5.2010 kl. 15:08]

Mikið óskaplega þykir mér vænt um að sjá hve hughreystandi þið eruð félagar. Það liggur við að ég sé hættur að óttast að kólnun geti verið yfirvofandi á næstu árum.

Við skulum vona að þið hafið rétt fyrir ykkur, og verð ég þá manna fegnastur. Mannkynssagan kennir okkur nefnilega að köld tímabil eru verri en þau hlýju.

Góða helgi.

[Karl Jóhann Guðnason, 31.5.2010 kl. 01:48]

Ég tek undir með Ágústi og vona að það reynist rétt að það muni halda áfram að hlýna. Jákvæðu áhrifin eru langt um fleiri en neikvæðu, samvkæmt sögunni, og nútímarannsóknum einnig. Það myndi t.d. vera mjög gott fyrir Ísland ef þar hlýnaði um eina eða tvær gráður. Meiri mataruppskera á sumrin t.d.

Ég held að það sé mjög slæmt ef menn gleyma mannkynsögunni því af sögunni er hægt að læra margt. Segi eins og Easterbrook: To understand present-day climate changes, we need to know how climate has behaved in the past.    

[Sveinn Atli Gunnarsson, 31.5.2010 kl. 01:56]

Merkilegt nokk Karl Jóhann, þá eru alvöru loftslagsfræðingar mjög meðvitaðir um loftslagsbreytingar fyrri tíma, jafnvel fleiri milljónir ára aftur í tímann, sjá t.d. Orsakir fyrri loftslagsbreytinga. En finnst þér í alvöru Karl Jóhann ekkert ámælisvert við vinnubrögð Easterbrook? Eins og Höski bendir á, þá er búið að standa hann að óvönduðum vinnubrögðum sem ekkert eiga skilt við vísindalegar aðferðir...

[Karl Jóhann Guðnason, 31.5.2010 kl. 16:37]

Aðalforsendan sem maður gefur sér er hvort framsetning hitafarsins síðustu hundruði ára lítur út eins og hokkíkylfa. Hefur hlýnað óvenjulega mikið síðustu áratugi og myndað hokkíkylfu? Eða er hiti nokkurn veginn í meðallagi miðað við síðustu árþúsundir. Það er greinilegt að Easterbrook trúir ekki á hokkíkylfuna og hefur því búið til graf sem er, að því er virðist ekki rangt samkvæmt þeirri hugmynd.    

Af þessu leiðir þá hefur hann einnig aðra línu á grafinu sem sýnir "núllpunktinn". Hann er 0,25 gráðum lægri en á grafinu sem sýnt er á wikipedia. Þessi núllpunktur er einnig háður hvort hitafar hafi breyst eins og hokkíkylfa eða ekki.

[Sveinn Atli Gunnarsson, 31.5.2010 kl. 20:05]

Easterbrook segir núverandi hitastig vera 0,75°C lægra en það í raun er. Það er að mínu mati fölsun, og það lítur út fyrir að þessi fölsun sé gerð vísvitandi til að slá ryki í augu fólks. En það eru kannski, að þínu mati, góð vinnubrögð sem eru ásættanleg eða hvað?

[Karl Jóhann Guðnason, 31.5.2010 kl. 22:39]

Það er erfitt að segja hver er að falsa hvað þegar undirliggjandi gögn eru ekki að sýna rétta mynd.   Það hefur verið komið inn á þetta áður hér á mínu bloggi og í stuttu máli þá er það líklegt að hnattrænu hitafarsgögnin, þ.e. yfirborðshitagögnin, fyrir síðustu áratugi séu að sýna að miklu leyti þéttbýlishlýnun en ekki raunverulega hlýnun. D. Aleo kom inn á þetta í sýnum fyrirlestri á Heartland ráðstefnunni. Sjá hér. Nokkrir punktar af einni glærunni um hnattrænu hitagögnin:

Global Database Issues:

- Station dropout (75% around 1990)
- Missing data increased tenfold after 1990
-Urban adjustment not used or totally inadequate even as world population       increased 1.5 to 6.7 billion since 1900
- Instruments with warm biases (HO-83) or not designed for climate trend   analysis (FAA ASOS +/- 0.9F)
- Siting for vast majority (90%) of sites do not meet government standards resulting in significant warm biases
- Major questions persist about how much and when to adjust ocean temperatures for changing measurement techniques – opportunity for mischief
Adjustments are then made to the data, very often leading to a warming trend that doesn’t exist in the raw data
                 Yet we pretend we can detect trends to
                  a precision of a tenth of a degree

[Sveinn Atli Gunnarsson, 31.5.2010 kl. 23:24]

Þú ert væntanlega að tala um skýrslu Watts og D'Aleo um færri veðurstöðvar í mælingum, sjá nánar færslu af loftslag.is; Staðnir að óvönduðum vinnubrögðum

Karl Jóhann, þá þarft kannski að fara að athuga heimildirnar þínar betur.